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The Big Banks

  • Rentemøte i Fed, BoE og ECB
  • Adobe og Oracle legger frem tall

5 viktige ting i denne uken

  • Valuta: EUR, CHF, GBP – rentemøter
  • Fed: Holdes rente stille eller snakk om kutt?
  • S&P500: Tilbake rundt høyeste nivå i 2023
  • Paramount‘s Power Play
  • Lululemon slår forventningene

The Spotlight

The week ahead

Investors anticipate the year’s final Federal Reserve meeting, expecting steady rates. Jerome Powell’s tone remains crucial. Core PCE inflation trends below forecasts near the 2% target. Economic updates encompass CPI, PPI, retail sales, and industrial production. Earnings spotlight Oracle, Costco, and Darden Restaurants.

FOMC Preview

Fed likely to maintain rates at 5.25% to 5.50%. Anticipated shift towards discussing lower rates evident. Nomura projects three 25-point rate cuts in 2024. Expecting dovish economic forecasts amid slower growth and faster disinflation. Watch USD, Gold, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones.

Last week’s jobs

November witnessed a rise of 199,000 in U.S. payrolls, slightly above the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, surpassing the forecast of 3.9%, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, signaling a significant inflation gauge.

BOE, ECB, SNB meetings

No policy shifts anticipated. Weak data might hint at ECB dovishness, impacting the euro and DAX. While markets predict SNB rate cuts, the central bank might refrain from confirming this stance. Watch USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, FTSE 100, DAX.

MOVERS & SHAKERS

S&P500

The S&P 500 hit a fresh high for 2023 on Friday, extending a six-week streak buoyed by strong economic indicators. The November jobs report and University of Michigan consumer survey suggested a robust economy and easing inflation, sparking optimism for a smoother economic transition.

Paramount

Paramount’s shares surged over 12% after reports surfaced about RedBird and Skydance considering a takeover. With Shari Redstone as the key shareholder, Paramount explores significant deals amidst revenue challenges and streaming losses in a flat year for its shares.

Lululemon

Lululemon’s stock surged over 6% as investors reviewed the company’s recent quarterly results. Despite surpassing earnings expectations for Q3, Lululemon offered a cautious outlook for the holiday season.

Robinhood

Robinhood Markets led financial gains, soaring 25.9% (market cap $2B+), aligning with the bitcoin rally, initiating commission-free crypto trading in the EU.

Marathon

Marathon Digital Holdings surged 22.5% alongside the bitcoin rally, benefitting as a bitcoin miner in the market’s upswing.

Riot

Riot Platforms, a bitcoin miner, rose 15% with a new purchase order, projecting enhanced scale and fleet efficiency.

USD

The US Jobs Report propelled the dollar upwards, with upcoming updates from the Fed, BoE, and ECB on monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected job data decreased rate cut expectations, impacting bond yields and the dollar.

CAD

The Canadian dollar weakened versus the USD due to Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks and falling global oil prices. Oil’s recent support and potential OPEC+ production cuts might bolster the loonie short-term. However, the US CPI report could sway Fed guidance.

Bitcoin

Amidst a crypto sell-off, Bitcoin plunged to $40,521, down 7.5%, then recovered slightly to $42,095. 2023 saw a rally due to US Bitcoin ETF hopes, expanding crypto investor prospects.

A Look Ahead

Chewy’s Spotlight

Chewy’s first-ever investor day follows weaker holiday guidance. Q3 market share gains amid industry pressures. Focus on long-term growth, margin gains, distribution upgrades, and potential in pharmacy and vet services. Concerns of market share loss attributed to weak pet industry macro. Stock down over 50%, 16.6% short interest.

Oracle Reports

Oracle  unveils Q2 results on Dec 11th, post-market. Analysts forecast $1.32 EPS, $13.05B revenue—a 6.3% rise. Focus on strong cloud performance and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure momentum. Expectations upbeat for robust Q3 guidance.  

The Week Ahead – Events (GMT)

Monday:
11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (December): index expected to rise to 85. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
Tuesday:
7am – UK employment data: October unemployment rate to rise to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings to rise 6.7%, down from 7.9%, for the three months to October. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (December): index expected to rise to 15 from 9.8. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm US inflation data (November): Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast to be -0.1% month on month (MoM) and 3.1% year-over-year (YoY), down from 0% and 3.2% respectively. Core CPI expected to be 0.2% MoM and 4% YoY, in line with October. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Wednesday:
7am – UK gross domestic product (GDP): October growth to be flat both MoM and on a 3-month rolling average. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US Producer Price Index (PPI) (November): prices expected to rise 0.1% MoM, from October’s -0.5%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 8 December): stockpiles fell by 4.6 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision: rates expected to hold at 5.5%. Press conference follows at 7.30pm. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday:
12.30am – Australia employment data: unemployment rate to hold at 3.7%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
12pm – Bank of England rate decision: no change in rates expected from current 5.25%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates forecast to remain at 4.5%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 9 December): Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Friday:
2am – China industrial production (November): expected to rise 5.8% YoY. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
8.30am – German PMI (December, flash): manufacturing to rise to 45.1 from 42.6. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK PMI (December, flash): manufacturing to rise to 48 from 47.2 and services to increase to 51.1 from 50.9. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US Empire State manufacturing index (December): index to fall to 6 from 9.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm – US PMI (December, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 49.2 and services PMI to drop to 50.7 from 50.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Earnings Calendar

Monday, December 11 – Casey’s General Stores (CASY) and Oracle (ORCL).

Tuesday, December 12 – Johnson Controls International (JCI).

Wednesday, December 13 – Adobe (ADBE) and ABM Industries (NYSE:ABM).

Thursday, December 14 – Costco (COST), Jabil (JBL) and Lennar (LEN).

Friday, December 15 – Darden Restaurants (DRI).

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